Anil Ari, Sophia Chen
(International Monetary Fund) and Lev Ratnovski (European Central Bank)
use a new database covering non-performing loans (NPLs) in 88 banking
crises since 1990 to show what can be learned
from past crises for non-performing loan resolution after COVID-19.
Compared with the 2008 crisis, some factors are conducive to NPL
resolution this time: banks have higher capital, the forward-looking
IFRS 9 accounting standards can help NPL recognition,
and the COVID-19 crisis was not preceded by a credit boom. However,
other factors could make NPL resolution more challenging: government
debt is substantially higher, banks are less profitable, and corporate
balance sheets are often weak.
The ECB Research Bulletin features a selection of recent work on policy-relevant topics by ECB economists. Published on a monthly basis, the articles in the Research Bulletin are intended for a general audience. The views expressed in each article are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the European Central Bank and the Eurosystem.
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