Segnalazione dalla World Bank

 "Dear Colleagues,

Against the backdrop of structural headwinds and a recent string of adverse shocks and crises, there has been extensive debate about the global economy’s ability to deliver sustained growth in coming years. We have just released a new study Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects to inform this debate. 

 

The study documents that the global economy’s “speed limit”—the rate of potential growth at which it can expand without sparking inflation—is set to slump to a three-decade low by 2030. Nearly all the fundamental forces that powered progress and prosperity over the last three decades are fading. As a result, between 2022 and 2030, average global potential growth is expected to be roughly one-third below the rate that prevailed in the first decade of this century. For emerging market and developing economies, the decline will be equally steep.  

The slowdown in potential growth has profound implications for the world’s ability to tackle the growing array of challenges unique to our times—stubborn poverty, diverging incomes, and climate change. Potential growth of the global economy can be raised, through ambitious policies at the national and global levels. The study presents an extensive menu of policy interventions to chart a sustained, sustainable, and inclusive growth path. 

You can download the study and data underlying its visuals here: Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects. The study also introduces the first comprehensive database of multiple measures of potential growth for the largest available country sample of up to 173 economies over 1981-2021. (...)

Best, Ayhan

Falling Long-Term Growth: Trends, Expectations, and Policies 

Edited by M. Ayhan Kose and Franziska Ohnsorge

Overview

Part I. Potential Growth: An Economy’s Speed Limit

Chapter 1. Potential Not Realized: An International Database of Potential Growth

Chapter 2. Regional Dimensions of Potential Growth: Hopes and Realities

Part II. Investment: Time for a Big Push

Chapter 3. The Global Investment Slowdown: Challenges and Policies

Chapter 4. Regional Dimensions of Investment: Moving in the Right Direction?

Part III. Policies: Recognition, Formulation, and Implementation

Chapter 5. Potential Growth Prospects: Risks, Rewards, and Policies

Chapter 6. Trade as an Engine of Growth: Sputtering but Fixable

Chapter 7. Services-Led Growth: Better Prospects after the Pandemic?

PS: The new study follows on our recent work on: The Long Shadow of Informality: Challenges and Policies; Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies; Global Waves of Debt: Causes and Consequences; A Decade After the Global Recession; and Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies. You can visit Global Economic Prospects and Commodity Markets Outlook for our main periodical products and World Bank Economic Monitoring for our full menu of publications.

M. Ayhan Kose

Deputy Chief Economist of the World Bank Group

and Director of Prospects Group

World Bank Group

T +1 (202) 473-8350

E  akose@worldbank.org

W ayhankose"